The Fed

The crippling doom loop between the banks and the real economy we saw in 2008 is unlikely to feature in the coming recession, says Ruffer’s Jamie Dannhauser, who is more concerned about a violent liquidation in financial markets.

There’s fairly wide disagreement about what private market outperformance will look like in the future, and investors are sweating the amount of money pouring into the asset class. At least the question of valuation is less frenzied than six months ago.

Howard Marks doesn’t place much weight in macro forecasts, but has helpfully provided one of his own for the years to come. In his view, nearly everything that used to work won’t work now.

Entrenched inflation will likely last longer and prove harder to stamp out than most investors acknowledge, according to a new analysis from quant shop Research Affiliates.

Jerome Powell is bent on “driving the car into the ditch”. But if history is any indicator, widespread fears of low single digit returns for equities are overblown.

Central bankers are hoping to subdue the inflation beast by the end of the calendar year. But it will likely be around for decades to come.

It’s the end of an era as the bear emerges from hibernation. So who’s staying in, and who’s doubling down?

Wildly anomalous times are giving rise to a new inflationary paradigm, and Lazard’s Ron Temple has climate change, mitigation risk, and equity duration on his mind.

Harindra de Silva from Allspring Global Investments shares insights with James Dunn from The Inside Network on “Can the Fed avoid inflation becoming entrenched and maintain growth?”

While markets have so far shrugged off the inevitable rate rises, there’s plenty more to come – and the global outlook keeps getting gloomier. The Fed’s decision to unleash massive monetary stimulus in the early days of Covid-19 (and in nearly every economic crisis before it) ushered in a brief golden age for markets. But…