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All markets want is a single spark, but beware another financial accident

Tidbits of good news will send equity markets soaring in the short-term. But the longer-dated fear is that central banks will be forced to respond to a financial accident without having dispatched the inflation genie.

Lachlan Maddock | 16th Nov 2022 | More
‘We’re all creatures of the present’: Look to history for future of equities

Jerome Powell is bent on “driving the car into the ditch”. But if history is any indicator, widespread fears of low single digit returns for equities are overblown.

Lachlan Maddock | 11th Nov 2022 | More
  • A ‘generational opportunity’ looms for distressed debt

    As the world threatens to plunge into recession, the distressed debt opportunity set is expanding. Even high-quality businesses are feeling the effects of inflation and rapid rate rises.

    Lachlan Maddock | 4th Nov 2022 | More
    Why APRA should have more leeway on YFYS

    Adding a qualitative measure of performance or the right to appeal to YFYS could enhance consumer outcomes. But critics have warned that it could defang the test.

    Lachlan Maddock | 4th Nov 2022 | More
  • ‘We don’t believe in hopes and dreams’: Why this hedge fund is long solar, short flying cars

    The opportunities of the decarbonisation boom are nigh endless. But a rising tide won’t lift all boats, and there’s plenty of ‘worst in breed’ companies that will surprise to the downside.

    Lachlan Maddock | 28th Oct 2022 | More
    Super gets a housing win, but the devil is in the detail

    It’s a good thing the superannuation industry hasn’t received “chapter and verse” from the government on its affordable housing plan. But details around performance still need to be worked out.

    Lachlan Maddock | 26th Oct 2022 | More
    Why US equities will weather the storm (and come back better than ever)

    In the madness of the last nine months, optimism has become a contrarian position. But there’s still plenty to be optimistic about in US equities.

    Lachlan Maddock | 26th Oct 2022 | More
    David George becomes Magellan’s $100 billion man

    This won’t be an environment where a rising tide will lift all boats, according to Magellan’s new CEO. But lifting this one will be a gargantuan task.

    Lachlan Maddock | 21st Oct 2022 | More
    Narrow strategies and nation-building kneecapped: Where YFYS goes wrong

    The Your Future Your Super (YFYS) performance test introduces systemic risk into superannuation and discourages the involvement of funds in nation-building projects. But tweaking the test itself might be a tall order.

    Lachlan Maddock | 19th Oct 2022 | More
  • Summers’ sober view on nukes, Cathie Wood and the ‘somewhere people’

    For all the risks that lie up ahead, the market is pricing very few of them in. But the situation in the United Kingdom should be a warning to investors of the “accidents” that may come.

    Lachlan Maddock | 12th Oct 2022 | More
    Time for a new story in emerging markets

    The complexities of investing in the emerging markets set have been compounded by the Your Future Your Super test. But they’re still a more likely source of growth than their developed market counterparts.

    Lachlan Maddock | 7th Oct 2022 | More
    ‘I cannot recall a more dangerous period than today’: Markets get a brand new Minsky Moment

    As a forty-year long bull run fuelled by cheap money screams to a stop, markets are at an inflection point. This time really could be different.

    Lachlan Maddock | 5th Oct 2022 | More