Analysis

Investors will have to retune expectations in line with changing market harmonics, global consultancy firm Oliver Wyman notes in part three of a five-paper opus delivered earlier this year. Based on data covering a 150-year period, the Oliver Wyman series concludes that investors must turn to more sophisticated tools to appreciate the complex tones of…

The fight in Ukraine is unlikely to spill over into a shooting war between Russia and the NATO countries. That doesn’t mean impossible, and investors “should absolutely worry about unintended consequences.” For the last month or so, investors have been reading the entrails of a beast they’re broadly unfamiliar with – geopolitics – to determine…

Quantitative investment management has undergone a massive lift in profile in recent years, largely due to the rise of ETFs and smart-beta strategies. But the ‘new quants’, as they are being called, are going much further than that. While hardly new to the space, Harindra (Harin) de Silva, a lead portfolio manager at Allspring Global…

It’s a truth universally acknowledged that equity market returns are likely to be muted going forward. But salvation might arrive in the form of domestic activist strategies. “From a timing perspective, we think the forward-looking environment presents a much more challenging return outlook for equity investors given the extended low interest rate and bull market…

APRA’s orthodoxy on scale and its importance to funds has been disputed by all comers, with “massive and passive” a common refrain. But the regulator is hoping to prove that bigger really is better. One of the more controversial moments of Helen Rowell’s career as APRA’s superannuation executive was the claim that any fund below…

Fifteen years ago, Thomas Friedman said that globalisation had finally made the world “flat” and that a golden age of prosperity was upon us. A month ago, that stopped being true. Love him or loathe him (and many lean towards the latter), Thomas Friedman occasionally hits the nail on the head. In his 2005 book…

In a world where the fundamentals of long-term market dynamics have “lost relevancy”, institutional investors are pondering a wall of worry – and having trouble figuring out how to climb it. A survey of the world’s largest institutional investors at a time like this will deliver some gloomy responses. Indeed, many investment officers seem to…

Many listed managers have been dragged back to earth in the recent spate of market volatility, but Morningstar believes some of the strongest names are oversold – and that they’ll soon mount a recovery. It’s the classic path from (somewhat) overhyped to (heavily) oversold. The share price of Magellan has fallen some 74 per cent…

It’s rare that an inquiry finds no evidence of harm from a practice and still recommends against it – but that’s the path the standing committee on economics has gone down. The standing committee on economics’ inquiry into common ownership was most notable for beingone of the few inquiries of that body that regularly ended…

Allspring Global Investments has launched an expansion into Australia and New Zealand led by new regional chief executive, Andy Sowerby. If history is a guide, the rollout of institutional funds management capabilities will be rapid. Sowerby, like Joe Sullivan, Allspring’s chairman and CEO, hails from Legg Mason, where he was the Melbourne-based regional head prior…

The “hard asset mantra” is rising to a fever pitch in an inflationary environment, but investors should be “skeptical of historical analogies.” Inflation over the coming decade is expected to be closer to the experience of the 2000s than the 2010s, ending a paradigm that has underpinned an “unusually long bull market for stocks” and…

Everybody loves a good story – investors particularly so. But sometimes a good story can lead to a crowded trade, or one that defies reality. “In finance, behaviour is driven by expectations of future returns, and expectations are often driven by stories, particularly during times of heightened uncertainty,” Charalee Hoelzl, investment manager at Ruffer, wrote…