Since the emergence of “Modern Portfolio Theory” and the “Capital Asset Pricing Model” in the late 1960s, institutional investors have taken a quantitatively driven approach to portfolio construction, looking to create portfolio diversification and obtain better risk-adjusted returns by balancing their asset-class exposures. This journey has seen several important advancements in thinking about how to optimally achieve desired results.
Funds that want to take the total portfolio approach first need to get the total portfolio view. To do that they not only need data – and lots of it – but a rock-solid understanding of exactly how they’re going to use it.
Franklin Templeton mid-year 2023 outlook: Time to engage more fully
For this mid-year outlook, the theme continues to be the attractiveness of investments beyond cash including fixed income, equities and alternatives. We give you our Institute perspective for the second half of 2023, with our ongoing conversations with our investment teams driving the narrative. The major highlights are:
Fixed income deserves a good deal of attention-delivering income is back.
Diversification and income may be enough motivation to move some holdings further out the US yield curve.
Equities should benefit from a taming of inflation and earnings optimism.
Following consecutive quarters of falling US corporate profits, the outlook for earnings is beginning to brighten.
A US recession remains the overwhelming consensus view and hence is to some extent already accounted for in market prices-it is likely to come later and be shallower than its predecessors.
Our risk worry list includes deep recession, geopolitical tensions, energy shocks and soggy returns.
In this issue, we follow our outlook with some useful exhibits from our investment teams as they provide primary points they are making when discussing opportunities for the rest of the year.
