With the big APRA-regulated funds now moving to the top of the list of taxpaying entities, they are realising the importance of working with their custodians to ensure after-tax investment decisions deliver for their members.
Beijing has taken some big IT strides to be a formidable challenge to the West. What is holding it back is an increasingly centralised approach to innovation, restricting the spread of new technologies that foster productivity and progress.
Amundi: The fiscal lever returns in an uncertain global order
The ambiguity surrounding US tariffs and their implementation is raising fears among businesses and consumers that could weigh on economic growth over the medium to long term, while having a temporary effect on inflation. Combining this uncertainty with the high valuations in US stocks and the fiscal announcements outside the US, has resulted in the divergence in performances between the US, European and Chinese equities. The changing stance in Europe caused a repricing of yields. Looking ahead, in our view fiscal expansion and trade uncertainty will play out as follows:
- Revival of strategic autonomy in Europe. Trump’s manoeuvres are acting as a wake-up call for Europe. The German fiscal push and the EU defence initiatives could be game changers for the region’s growth, if properly targeted, but they will require time to deliver, and tariff risks also remain. The growth impact of these measures will come after 2025. For now, we are not changing our forecasts.
- No recession in the US, but downside risks on the rise. The effect of tariffs on US growth adds concern, at a time of an already moderating economy. This is also evident from the Fed’s recent downgrade of the growth range for this year. We are monitoring how potentially slower growth could affect corporate earnings – the first half will be crucial.
- Government stimulus in China, while short of an outright economic revival, has managed to sustain the positive sentiment. We upgrade our GDP growth forecasts from 4.1% to 4.4% (2025) and from 3.6% to 3.9% (2026) on the back of a strong fiscal multiplier.
