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Earnings learnings: Why forecasts are fantasy

US stock valuations based on forecast operating earnings regularly veer into ‘fantasy’ land, according to a new analysis by quantitative investment firm Research Affiliates (RAFI), with reality set to disappoint again in 2023 as recessionary risks remain.

David Chaplin | 25th Jan 2023 | More
‘No simple answers’: The Future Fund’s brave new world

How institutional investors generate returns now needs to change, according to a position paper from the Future Fund, with the very foundations of Modern Portfolio Theory shaken by the events of 2020-22.

Lachlan Maddock | 20th Dec 2022 | More
  • Why instos really underperform (and don’t know why)

    Institutional investors are mostly unaware of what’s dragging on their performance, according to analysis by Northern Trust Asset Management. Having too many managers with the same style is part of the problem.

    Lachlan Maddock | 18th Dec 2022 | More
    War, inflation trump cyber-fears for 2023

    Geopolitical tension has pushed aside cyber-worries and pandemic fears to take the top spot in the latest Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) poll of the global financial services industry.

    David Chaplin | 13th Dec 2022 | More
  • Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide as a new year arrives

    2022 has left investors battered. The start of 2023 will leave them merely bruised. But analysts and economists alike aren’t pricing recession right.

    Lachlan Maddock | 13th Dec 2022 | More
    A cathartic moment after turmoil of 2022

    The chaos of 2022 has reset valuations to the point where they’re hard to ignore, according to J.P. Morgan Asset Management. That doesn’t mean the future of markets is any less cloudy.

    Lachlan Maddock | 7th Dec 2022 | More
    After the bear, there’s the quick and the dead

    When the bear market reverses, something very different might lead the way out. The adaptability and flexibility of a momentum-based approach could be a boon.

    Lachlan Maddock | 18th Nov 2022 | More
    Institutions find their faith in factors

    As rising inflation and rates bite into returns, institutional investors are increasingly turning to factor investing to help them weather the storm.

    Lachlan Maddock | 14th Nov 2022 | More
    ‘High gear, heavy machinery’: Mingshi turns its predictive powers on green opportunities

    China A share quant house Mingshi is turning its algorithms on the sustainable investing opportunity as government support for a greener economy grows.

    Lachlan Maddock | 9th Nov 2022 | More
  • De-moated fund managers face squeeze as flow growth slows

    Up to 90 per cent of fund managers globally are in danger of losing further market share over the next decade as organic growth grinds lower and competition ramps up, according to a new study by financial technology firm, Broadridge.

    David Chaplin | 26th Oct 2022 | More
    ‘Red ink pouring on the page’: Nation-building, Black Swans and the ‘Texan mentality’

    A Texas snowstorm holds hard lessons for Australian super funds. And as their nation-building rhetoric intensifies, they’ll have to remember that offshore funds will want a piece of the pie too.

    Lachlan Maddock | 21st Oct 2022 | More
    Cash ain’t trash: Time for a rethink on CPI+ objectives

    The previously (relatively) low hurdle of a CPI+ return objective is going to be harder to leap in the future. It might be time to return to the old stalwart of cash.

    Lachlan Maddock | 19th Oct 2022 | More
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