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A few bad apples, or is the whole financial orchard at risk?

The crippling doom loop between the banks and the real economy we saw in 2008 is unlikely to feature in the coming recession, says Ruffer’s Jamie Dannhauser, who is more concerned about a violent liquidation in financial markets.

Jamie Dannhauser | 31st May 2023 | More
It’s not the GFC, but investors are ‘career-ing’ into liquidation

It isn’t 2008 all over again, but dismissing the broader risks of SVB’s demise would be a mistake for investors, writes Ruffer CIO Henry Maxey.

Henry Maxey | 17th Mar 2023 | More
‘I cannot recall a more dangerous period than today’: Markets get a brand new Minsky Moment

As a forty-year long bull run fuelled by cheap money screams to a stop, markets are at an inflection point. This time really could be different.

Lachlan Maddock | 5th Oct 2022 | More
  • Why inflation will last decades longer than you think

    Central bankers are hoping to subdue the inflation beast by the end of the calendar year. But it will likely be around for decades to come.

    Lachlan Maddock | 6th Jul 2022 | More
    Why taming the inflation tiger will be harder than the 1970s

    Inflation is making a latter day comeback, and a financial system “sanitized by 15 years of free money” is totally unprepared. It’s time, once again, for tough medicine.

    Lachlan Maddock | 27th May 2022 | More
    ‘Genuine heretics’: how ‘safety first’ pays off for Ruffer

    All fund managers like to talk about protecting capital. At Ruffer Investment Management, it is a more embedded philosophy than most.

    James Dunn | 6th May 2022 | More
  • Beware the power of a good story

    Everybody loves a good story – investors particularly so. But sometimes a good story can lead to a crowded trade, or one that defies reality. “In finance, behaviour is driven by expectations of future returns, and expectations are often driven by stories, particularly during times of heightened uncertainty,” Charalee Hoelzl, investment manager at Ruffer, wrote…

    Lachlan Maddock | 16th Mar 2022 | More
    The art of bubble spotting

    From Tulip Mania to the Tech Wreck, the history of bubbles shows that they’re harder to spot than investors might think. As Ruffer investment director Lauren French notes in the latest Ruffer Review, even the smartest can fall prey to a market bubble. Isaac Newton, one of the most brilliant mathematicians in history, still lost…

    Lachlan Maddock | 11th Mar 2022 | More
  • Crypto might never be more than a meme

    While proponents believe that cryptocurrencies will inevitably disrupt traditional finance, it’ll be harder than it seems – and less lucrative than they think. As cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have shot to prominence in the last several years, it’s now being taken as a given that they will eventually disrupt traditional finance. Blockchain technology offers…

    Lachlan Maddock | 9th Mar 2022 | More
    Avoiding the inflation volatility shipwreck

    For investors trying to figure out how to navigate inflation volatility, an infamous shipwreck might hold the answers. The question of whether inflation is transitory or structural is likely the wrong question to be asking.UK-based investment house Ruffer believes that it’s both: that the inflation tide will come in and go back out repeatedly, bringing…

    Lachlan Maddock | 3rd Feb 2022 | More