Deeper Thought

Germany’s fiscal expansion may boost economic growth in the long term The ambiguity surrounding US tariffs and their implementation is raising fears among businesses and consumers that could weigh on economic growth over the medium to long term, while having a temporary effect on inflation. Combining this uncertainty with the high valuations in US stocks and the fiscal announcements outside the US, has resulted in the divergence in performances between the US, European and Chinese equities. Amundi presents its latest Global Investment Views.

French tax reform boosted retirement savings, with higher-income, older workers contributing more after the 2019 Loi Pacte introduced pre-tax incentives, according to an Amundi white paper analysing 1.4 million workers.

With uncertainty looming from Trump tariffs to the impact of DeepSeek on AI, Amundi is focussing on global equity opportunities, diversifying with gold and maintaining a tactical approach to duration.

Since the emergence of “Modern Portfolio Theory” and the “Capital Asset Pricing Model” in the late 1960s, institutional investors have taken a quantitatively driven approach to portfolio construction, looking to create portfolio diversification and obtain better risk-adjusted returns by balancing their asset-class exposures. This journey has seen several important advancements in thinking about how to optimally achieve desired results.

US political shifts are set to shape market sentiment, with Amundi predicting significant moves in equities, emerging markets and inflation as tax and policy changes take effect.”.

It’s all about confidence, says leading European asset manager Amundi, which expects multi-speed growth in the second half of 2024 marked by slow and uneven disinflationary trends and diverging dynamics.

Volatility from regulatory action and climate change is creating buying opportunities for U.K. water utilities, according to ClearBridge Investments.

Emerging markets are now outpacing developed nations in growth and credit quality, but Franklin Templeton’s fixed income team says investors should conduct thorough risk assessments for these promising opportunities.

2024 presents a strong market for private equity buyers according to Lexington Investment’s research team, with global secondary transaction volume hitting a record high on LP liquidity needs and GP-led deals.

For investors contending with changing risk and return dynamics, regulated utilities stand out as a stable choice amid sectoral uncertainty according to Nick Langley, senior portfolio manager at ClearBridge Investments.

Citing signals of economic transition and diversified benefits, Amundi recommends a significant portfolio allocation to gold following its +30 per cent surge since 2023.

The next decade could see higher growth and lower inflation, partly due to AI adoption’s productivity gains, according to Amundi’s latest investment forecast.