Trump 2.0 isn’t an anomaly; it’s the end game of decades of civic and institutional erosion. Democracy has been backsliding, not because of coups but through compliance, distraction and rule-bending. For those in the capital markets, the warning signs aren’t just political, they’re systemic – and economically material.
Optimising portfolio returns with new investing models
Since the emergence of “Modern Portfolio Theory” and the “Capital Asset Pricing Model” in the late 1960s, institutional investors have taken a quantitatively driven approach to portfolio construction, looking to create portfolio diversification and obtain better risk-adjusted returns by balancing their asset-class exposures. This journey has seen several important advancements in thinking about how to optimally achieve desired results.
Perhaps the assumption that markets are still anchored by predictable economic policies needs to be challenged. For the first time since the fall of the Berlin Wall, political volatility – once background noise – is potentially reshaping investment risk at a structural level.
Germany’s fiscal expansion may boost economic growth in the long term The ambiguity surrounding US tariffs and their implementation is raising fears among businesses and consumers that could weigh on economic growth over the medium to long term, while having a temporary effect on inflation. Combining this uncertainty with the high valuations in US stocks and the fiscal announcements outside the US, has resulted in the divergence in performances between the US, European and Chinese equities. Amundi presents its latest Global Investment Views.
French tax reform boosted retirement savings, with higher-income, older workers contributing more after the 2019 Loi Pacte introduced pre-tax incentives, according to an Amundi white paper analysing 1.4 million workers.