Analysis

Big super funds are getting even bigger. But as consolidation continues – and stapling kicks in – they’ve got a new problem that can’t easily be overcome: they’re more alike than different.

Custodial news raced up the ISN editorial leaderboard this year, even while mergers and acquisitions and the flawed Your Future Your Super (YFYS) performance test dominated the front page.

Institutional investors the world over are increasing their allocations to private equity, even though they don’t know how much risk they’re taking on. And in 2023 they expect ESG stocks will underperform.

Howard Marks doesn’t place much weight in macro forecasts, but has helpfully provided one of his own for the years to come. In his view, nearly everything that used to work won’t work now.

Stung by the harsh correction in the US equity market, sovereign wealth funds are looking further afield. And they’re beginning to question whether the pace of their private markets investing can be maintained.

The only reason private equity hasn’t suffered as much in this downturn is the discretion that sponsors have over its valuation. That’s going to change – and so is investors’ willingness to believe the impossible.

After a damaging year, the “massive technical headwinds” for emerging market debt are easing. And the biggest opportunities might be the smallest parts of the benchmark.

While hopes of a ‘soft landing’ abound, global pension funds are a little more cynical. A stagflationary environment is not just possible, but likely, and hedging against it will be a herculean task.

Entrenched inflation will likely last longer and prove harder to stamp out than most investors acknowledge, according to a new analysis from quant shop Research Affiliates.

As the world’s top 100 asset managers grow to awesome size, they’re confronted by a “complex and uncertain” macro environment and need to prepare for the burgeoning systemic risks of climate change.

The war on ESG rages anew after a rollercoaster 2022, but its detractors won’t win the fight. And as ESG matures, the future of passive index-tracking strategies is shaky.

While inflation, rates and the US dollar are peaking, we’re not quite there yet. Dutch quant house Robeco is tipping better returns for investors in 2023 but only after markets tumble further over the coming months.